The Rotation Continues: Sell Mega Cap Tech, Buy Foreign Stocks, Gold Miners, and MLPs.
Global markets remain uncertain and volatile. The Trump Administration has taken an audacious approach to trade, wars, economics, law, and immigration which has led to more market volatility than any US administration in modern history. The S&P 500 is expensive. This combination of overvaluation and uncertainty led to our timely warning that the market was […]
Nvidia’s Death Cross Argues for Tactical Asset Allocation Today
While the Death Cross sounds melodramatic, this technical indicator — when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average – historically precedes every major decline. While not every Death Cross leads to a major decline, it would be foolish to ignore this signal. Since March 19th, the Death Cross was breached by Nvidia […]
The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Magnificent 7 stocks peaked in the first quarter of 2025
Simultaneously, foreign and emerging market stocks have turned up as did gold and value stocks reflecting a leadership rotation out of overvalued and over owned mega caps and into long dormant geographies and sectors. Through March 28, the table below shows the negative performance in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index and NASDAQ as […]
Playing it Safe with Gold, Global and High Yield Values
7.5% Yield Portfolio Allocation. The US stock market is historically overvalued and should generate low single digit returns for the next decade. The enormous success of US technology has led to a bubble in the Magnificent 7 stocks and an irrationally exuberant market sentiment. We believe the best future returns will not be generated by […]
Did DeepSeek Burst the Bubbles in Nvidia and Stock Market?
By several measures this letter will show how the US stock market is in a bubble and prone to a collapse. We believe that this past week’s announcement by DeepSeek of a low-cost large language model could be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of this parabolic mega cap market leading to a pronounced […]