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The Changing Market and Investment Cycle of the 2020’s
The yield curve or “term structure of interest rates” has changed profoundly since 2019 with the rise in inflation and the federal government’s response to
Fade the Stock Market Blow-Off
and Rotate Away from Stocks, Bonds, and the 60/40 Allocation.
S&P 500 earnings have turned up and should drive a final top in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Equity risk premiums are dropping, signaling stock
A Rare Opportunity for Retirement Income Portfolios
The Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 initiated a period of artificially low interest rates created by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve. This post-GFC period of
This Decade Is Different – Low Rates Are Gone and Commodities Are Coming Back
US markets are digesting the unwinding of three massive bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. These asset classes have enjoyed consistently high returns due
Trapped Between Inflation and Recession: Derisking Portfolios with High Yielding Investiments
Historically, when the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Funds Rate ten times or 5% in fifteen months, economic growth slows, GDP turns negative, unemployment rises,
SVB’s Collapse Strengthens Gold’s Prospects
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has quickly uncovered a systemic banking vulnerability that will diminish the return prospects of both the stock and
Is the Federal Reserve Wrong Again in Believing Inflation is Transitory?
Between October 13 and February 2, the stock market enjoyed a healthy rebound on the optimistic market outlook that the Federal Reserve’s rapid 2022 tightening
Improving Investment Strategy with Cycle and Sector Timing
The current market environment is unpredictable. A few months ago, most economists were forecasting a recession in 2023, but in recent months persistent consumer spending,
A Brief History of Market Cycles – IGA’s 2023 Investment Strategy
“Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn’t changed for thousands of years” said legendary trader Jesse Lauriston Livermore. We believe that today, Wall Street, broadly speaking,
Safe Havens for a Volatile 2023: Precious Metals, High Yielding Equities, and Cash
The prospects for stocks and bonds in 2023 are not great. Consequently, we are overweighting safe- haven investments like precious metals, high yielding stocks, and
A Soft Landing is Possible, but Not Probable
We have been bearish on stocks, bonds, and real estate for two years, but see a glimmer of hope that a meaningful economic recession and
When Will This Pain End?
The major indexes experienced their worst first nine months of the year since 2002, with declines in the Dow Industrials of -18.6%, S&P 500 of