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Two Generational Trends Reverse: Fed Inflation Policy and the Bursting Technology Bubble
39 years ago, the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 15.312% and interest rates began declining. On August 27th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented the
COVID-19 Vaccine Prospects and Curve Flattening Compel Cyclical Rotation
Sell gold and precious metals like GLD, GDX and SLV. Sell Big Tech like AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOGL and MSFT. Pivot investments for an economic
COVID-19’s Final Act and Epilogue
The COVID-19 tragedy is entering its final stages. The rate of coronavirus spread and death have slowed. Social distancing policies and stay-at-home orders have mitigated
The Coronavirus OPEC+ Double Black Swan
In response to the COVID-19 epidemic and the March 9th OPEC+ oil collapse–two Black Swans–the S&P 500 declined 35% between February 20th and March 23rd.
A Rare Opportunity for Income and Growth
MLPs have historically compelling valuations with unusually high yields. MLPs experienced multiple black swan events creating extreme bargains. Relative to Treasuries, MLP prices are three
A Rare Opportunity for Income and Growth
MLPs are at historically low prices and historically high yields. MLP cashflows are stable with single digit downside Relative to Treasuries, MLP prices are three
Irrational Pessimism
The Fed Model is a screaming buy–highest levels in three decades. • High yielding investments with good underlying cashflows like KYN and KMF are compelling.
Coronavirus and OPEC Black Swans Create Rare 1987-like Opportunity in MLPs
Market decline of 33% on par with 1987. • MLP Treasury spreads at historic levels. • MLPs have stable cash flows. • KYN looks especially
Coronavirus and OPEC Black Swans Crash Stock Market like 1987
Market decline of 30% over with massive breadth and volume readings VIX, Fed Model and MLP Treasury spreads at historic levels. MLPs have stable cash
Coronavirus Market Panic and Opportunity
Worsening coronavirus or COVID-19 news drove a 12.4% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, last week, erasing $5 trillion in global equity market value.
S&P 5905 Target up 88% and the Fed Model’s Flaw
We revised our S&P 500 2020 Fed Model price target up to 5905 (up 88%). This letter reviews how recent decades of extreme Central Bank
Investment Trends for the Next Decade
The 2020s will produce important new trends in the global markets which this letter will explore. The new investment themes for the 2020s are: Rising