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Project Harpoon and the Chinese Two Step
The S&P 500 has retreated from all-time highs as the promise of a US China trade agreement has withered. Additionally, threatened tariffs against Mexico and
The AMID Unitholder Tragedy
The first quarter’s powerful rebound in US equities was driven by improving prospects of a comprehensive enforceable trade deal with China and a complete reversal
MLPs at a Crossroad.
February built on January’s sharp equity market rebound as the Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to a neutral posture that would not jeopardize the economy’s
The China Factor and Activists on AMID
The S&P 500’s 8.01% January rally reversed December’s 8.80% loss driven by dovish Federal Reserve commentary and improved prospects for a trade dispute resolution between
2018’s Stock Market Volatility
The fourth quarter spike in equity market volatility is primarily the result of the US-China trade negotiations during a multi-year interest rate normalization program designed
The Case for Buying October’s Dip
The S&P 500 declined 6.9% in October as expectations for 2019 earnings comparisons downshifted. With 2018 earnings up 22% and the approaching anniversary of The
Global Equity Market Performance Will Revert to the Mean in 2019
While the US equity market is at record highs, we have become more positive on the market and the economy in recent letters. Fears that
Are Trump’s Foreign Policy and Tariffs Reckless?
The economy is heating up. The second quarter GDP was revised upward to 4.2% from 4.1%. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, reported second-quarter sales of
Melt-Up, Mr. Grantham? S&P Earnings and US GDP Growth Strengthen.
Both S&P 500 earnings estimates and the US economy are accelerating. This combination of improving fundamentals revives the prospects for another leg up in the
Strategies for the Bursting Bond Bubble
This year’s increased stock market volatility and sharp declines in the emerging markets are the result of rising interest rates. If interest rates revert to
Rising Interest Rates are Fundamentally Changing Investing
This month’s letter argues that rising rates are fundamentally changing investing and asset allocation. Our basic premise is that interest rates are artificially low and
Are 3% 10-year US Treasury Yields the Death Knell for Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate?
The remarkable 34-year bull market in bonds which enriched stock, bond and real estate investors for the last three decades, broke another key milestone in