Safe Havens for Today’s Over Levered World — Gold and International Equities.

Capital markets performance has been dominated this year by the new administration’s efforts to implement its Make America Great Again agenda. Trump’s Liberation Day tariff plan led to a sharp decline in the S&P 500 as the uncertainty of his tariff focused renegotiation of global trade agreements was greeted with fear, panic, and partisanship. Despite […]

Blue Lagoon Resources Transitions Toward Production and A Mother Lode

Blue Lagoon Resources, Inc. (BLAGF or BLLG.CN) is a high-grade gold resource company in British Columbia that is transitioning into a gold mining company. The unique appeal to this transition story is the potential scale of the Dome Mountain resource it owns in British Columbia. Quinton Hennigh, PhD, and advising geologist for Crescat Capital, which […]

Nvidia’s Death Cross Argues for Tactical Asset Allocation Today

While the Death Cross sounds melodramatic, this technical indicator — when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average – historically precedes every major decline. While not every Death Cross leads to a major decline, it would be foolish to ignore this signal. Since March 19th, the Death Cross was breached by Nvidia […]

The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Magnificent 7 stocks peaked in the first quarter of 2025

The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Magnificent 7 stocks peaked in the first quarter of 2025

Simultaneously, foreign and emerging market stocks have turned up as did gold and value stocks reflecting a leadership rotation out of overvalued and over owned mega caps and into long dormant geographies and sectors. Through March 28, the table below shows the negative performance in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index and NASDAQ as […]

Playing it Safe with Gold, Global and High Yield Values

7.5% Yield Portfolio Allocation. The US stock market is historically overvalued and should generate low single digit returns for the next decade. The enormous success of US technology has led to a bubble in the Magnificent 7 stocks and an irrationally exuberant market sentiment. We believe the best future returns will not be generated by […]

Did DeepSeek Burst the Bubbles in Nvidia and Stock Market?

By several measures this letter will show how the US stock market is in a bubble and prone to a collapse. We believe that this past week’s announcement by DeepSeek of a low-cost large language model could be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of this parabolic mega cap market leading to a pronounced […]

Major Signals Point to Market Top

Investment Risk Mitigation is Prudent Now. Several valuation and behavioral indicators are signaling that a generational stock market top is forming. While periods of overvaluation can persist, we advise reducing equity exposure in the Magnificent Seven, and capitalization weighted indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). Furthermore, we advise reviewing your […]

The Two Trillion Dollar Question and the S&P 500’s Cautionary Risk Premium

The consequence of the re-election of Donald Trump is enormous. After the spike in inflation of over 20%, over the last four years, high hopes abound for the new administration’s initiatives to reduce inflation. With radical reform promised with the so called Department of Government Efficiency “DOGE” led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, markets […]

Post Election Volatility and Great Rotation

Whatever the outcome of the November 5th Presidential election is, market volatility will likely increase while the anticipated policies of the next administration are debated. After the Presidential Inauguration on January 20th, 2025, the process of implementing those policies will begin and the markets will continue to gyrate as polarized electorates comes to terms with […]