Major Signals Point to Market Top

Investment Risk Mitigation is Prudent Now. Several valuation and behavioral indicators are signaling that a generational stock market top is forming. While periods of overvaluation can persist, we advise reducing equity exposure in the Magnificent Seven, and capitalization weighted indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). Furthermore, we advise reviewing your […]
The Two Trillion Dollar Question and the S&P 500’s Cautionary Risk Premium

The consequence of the re-election of Donald Trump is enormous. After the spike in inflation of over 20%, over the last four years, high hopes abound for the new administration’s initiatives to reduce inflation. With radical reform promised with the so called Department of Government Efficiency “DOGE” led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, markets […]
Post Election Volatility and Great Rotation

Whatever the outcome of the November 5th Presidential election is, market volatility will likely increase while the anticipated policies of the next administration are debated. After the Presidential Inauguration on January 20th, 2025, the process of implementing those policies will begin and the markets will continue to gyrate as polarized electorates comes to terms with […]
The Great Generational Leadership Rotation

Market cycles repeat themselves and we believe this current stock market cycle parallels the 2000 technology bubble because today’s market is led by technology stocks, enjoys a positive financial feedback loop, and is experiencing a mass euphoria. Furthermore, today’s market bubble benefited from four decades of declining interest rates, which lifted equity valuations, drove decades […]
The Mega Cap and AI Bubble and the Generational Rotation

Our July 9th letter cautioned that the parabolic rise in Nvidia shares is reminiscent of the “irrational exuberance” that historically accompanies generational peaks like 1929, 1966, and 2000. Since then, Nvidia (NVDA) and the NASDAQ 100 index (QQQ) have declined 16.9% and 9.3% respectively. While that call was well-timed and appears to be part of […]
The Final Stages of a Mega Cap Blowoff And Serious Equity Market Risks

The current rise in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) shares, mega cap stocks, and capitalization weighted indices, has all the markings of a generational stock market peak like 1929, 1974, and 2000. Like past historic bubbles, the current market is manifesting a parabolic ascent, historically high valuations, and an “irrational exuberance” based this time on the extraordinary […]
10% Yielding Portfolio Investments Revealed by Broadening Market Strength

Generational market tops like 1929, the 1970’s Nifty Fifty, and the 2000 Technology Bubble are frequently characterized by a group of leading popular stocks with parabolic charts and irrationally exuberant return expectations. In today’s market, the Magnificent 7 stocks and, to a lesser degree, the capitalization weighted indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ […]
The 5% Income Portfolio for the 2020s

Retirement Investors’ Answer to the 60-40 Portfolio. The investment environment of the 2020s will be the flipside of the last 15 years’ negative interest rates and quite the opposite of the broad domestic investment experience since 1981 when 10-year US Treasury yields peaked at 15.32%. Since 1981, stocks, bonds and real estate all benefited from […]
Three Dependable Warning Signs Compel Rotation to Value

Three ominous metrics compel a strategic rotation into out-of-favor equity and commodity sectors to preserve long-term investment capital. With the return of inflation and a generational shift out of low interest rates, overlooked small, value, foreign and high-yield equities, as well as inflationary- hedges offer compelling new investment sectors to preserve your long-term capital. With […]
Tellurian’s Tremendous Turnaround

Tellurian Inc.’s investment potential has always been contingent on the successful financing of its Driftwood LNG facility which we estimate could generate $2 billion to $4 billion in cash flow a year in the 2030 timeframe. Tellurian’s announcements that it is selling its Haynesville natural gas assets, evaluating alternative sources of cheap natural gas, and […]