Newsletters

The first quarter’s powerful rebound in US equities was driven by improving prospects of a comprehensive enforceable trade deal with China and a complete reversal

February built on January’s sharp equity market rebound as the Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to a neutral posture that would not jeopardize the economy’s

The S&P 500’s 8.01% January rally reversed December’s 8.80% loss driven by dovish Federal Reserve commentary and improved prospects for a trade dispute resolution between

The fourth quarter spike in equity market volatility is primarily the result of the US-China trade negotiations during a multi-year interest rate normalization program designed

The S&P 500 declined 6.9% in October as expectations for 2019 earnings comparisons downshifted. With 2018 earnings up 22% and the approaching anniversary of The

While the US equity market is at record highs, we have become more positive on the market and the economy in recent letters. Fears that

The economy is heating up. The second quarter GDP was revised upward to 4.2% from 4.1%. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, reported second-quarter sales of

Both S&P 500 earnings estimates and the US economy are accelerating. This combination of improving fundamentals revives the prospects for another leg up in the

This year’s increased stock market volatility and sharp declines in the emerging markets are the result of rising interest rates. If interest rates revert to

This month’s letter argues that rising rates are fundamentally changing investing and asset allocation. Our basic premise is that interest rates are artificially low and

The remarkable 34-year bull market in bonds which enriched stock, bond and real estate investors for the last three decades, broke another key milestone in

“Toto, I have a feeling we are not in Kansas anymore,” Dorothy famously said in the children’s classic The Wizard of Oz. In the same