Is the Federal Reserve Wrong Again in Believing Inflation is Transitory?
Between October 13 and February 2, the stock market enjoyed a healthy rebound on the optimistic market outlook that the Federal Reserve’s rapid 2022 tightening would bring lower inflation, a mild recession; and then the Federal Reserve would reverse directions and ease the Fed Fund rate leading to a continuation of the bull market as […]
Improving Investment Strategy with Cycle and Sector Timing
The current market environment is unpredictable. A few months ago, most economists were forecasting a recession in 2023, but in recent months persistent consumer spending, strong employment, and solid GDP data suggest a recession is increasingly less probable. Furthermore, the Ukrainian resistance is making Russia’s invasion look increasingly like a failure which could lead to […]
A Brief History of Market Cycles – IGA’s 2023 Investment Strategy
“Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn’t changed for thousands of years” said legendary trader Jesse Lauriston Livermore. We believe that today, Wall Street, broadly speaking, is wrong. Over the last 40 years, trillions have been successfully invested based on exhaustive research around valuations and economic forecasts. Today, with the end of a 40-year tailwind of […]
Safe Havens for a Volatile 2023: Precious Metals, High Yielding Equities, and Cash
The prospects for stocks and bonds in 2023 are not great. Consequently, we are overweighting safe- haven investments like precious metals, high yielding stocks, and money markets. We expect stocks to register earnings declines as the economy slows. How deep the economic slowdown will depend on the Fed and geopolitical risks like China invading Taiwan. […]
A Soft Landing is Possible, but Not Probable
We have been bearish on stocks, bonds, and real estate for two years, but see a glimmer of hope that a meaningful economic recession and sharp earnings decline are not forgone conclusions. Whether or not inflation remains tenaciously high or reverts toward 2% remains to be seen. Our fear is that inflation will remain intractable […]
When Will This Pain End?
The major indexes experienced their worst first nine months of the year since 2002, with declines in the Dow Industrials of -18.6%, S&P 500 of 22.5% and NASDAQ Composite of 30.5%. These sizable declines are a result of rising interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy designed to reverse the highest inflation […]
Inflation’s Pain Cometh
S&P 500 earnings have topped. The Federal Reserve talks tough. Rising energy prices threaten a European depression. Supply-side not monetary solutions are needed. Following the equity and bond markets’ brutal first half, the S&P 500 index snapped back this summer. With Biden’s releases from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), markets experienced declining oil and […]
Tellurian Shifts Financing Strategy
Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG project financing is imminent. Tellurian’s integrated model is more lucrative than tolling. LNG is a leading transition fuel and critical to Europe. Full Notice To Proceed is as important as FID. If successful, Tellurian could provide exceptional returns. Company Profile and Opportunity Tellurian Inc. (TELL) is an integrated LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) producer. TELL owns, develops, and produces its own natural gas, which comes from the nearby Haynesville Shale, which has some of the cheapest natural gas in the world. TELL is building Driftwood LNG, a liquefaction facility, which converts natural […]
Entering The Next Phase of the Inflationary Bear Market
The market’s decline rests with how severely earnings decline. Massive Federal Reserve Accommodation has led to multiple asset bubbles. Inflation will be tenacious due to energy and supply chain challenges. Today’s inflationary cycle in an investment game changer. Natural gas, LNG, nuclear and precious metals should have decade long rallies. US stock, bond, and […]
New Inflationary Cycle Investments and Strategies for Secular Bear Markets
Stocks, bonds, and 60/40 had terrible first half. No surprise. The market has potentially 50% more downside, but that is not the worst case. Reflationary investments and the commodity super cycle are in bull markets Energy policy failures create multiple market opportunities. Backward looking strategies are doomed in new inflationary cycle. The stock market […]