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The 5% Income Portfolio for the 2020s
Retirement Investors’ Answer to the 60-40 Portfolio. The investment environment of the 2020s will be the flipside of the last 15 years’ negative interest rates
Three Dependable Warning Signs Compel Rotation to Value
Three ominous metrics compel a strategic rotation into out-of-favor equity and commodity sectors to preserve long-term investment capital. With the return of inflation and a
Tellurian’s Tremendous Turnaround
Tellurian Inc.’s investment potential has always been contingent on the successful financing of its Driftwood LNG facility which we estimate could generate $2 billion to
Real Yields and Real Returns
The S&P 500 and Magnificent 7 stocks are expensive and at their all-time highs. We believe inflation will remain stubbornly persistent and not return to
Investment and Strategies for 2024
The four decade era of declining or abnormally low interest rates is over. Both short-term and long-term interest rates are now meaningfully higher, and stock,
Year-End Tax Bounces and Market Crosscurrents
Geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and higher interest rates are adding uncertainty to the popular soft landing scenario as we enter into 2024. Conversely, death and taxes
Major Asset Classes Are at a Generational Inflection Point
Since 1982, 10-year US Treasury yields have declined from 15.8% to 0.55% in 2020. During this four decade period of declining rates, the three major
The Changing Market and Investment Cycle of the 2020’s
The yield curve or “term structure of interest rates” has changed profoundly since 2019 with the rise in inflation and the federal government’s response to
Fade the Stock Market Blow-Off and Rotate Away from Stocks, Bonds, and the 60/40 Allocation.
S&P 500 earnings have turned up and should drive a final top in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Equity risk premiums are dropping, signaling stock
A Rare Opportunity for Retirement Income Portfolios
The Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 initiated a period of artificially low interest rates created by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve. This post-GFC period of
This Decade Is Different – Low Rates Are Gone and Commodities Are Coming Back
US markets are digesting the unwinding of three massive bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. These asset classes have enjoyed consistently high returns due
Trapped Between Inflation and Recession: Derisking Portfolios with High Yielding Investiments
Historically, when the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Funds Rate ten times or 5% in fifteen months, economic growth slows, GDP turns negative, unemployment rises,